Model fatigue, China's price pressure, and a profit horizon still years away
The AI industry's release calendar has compressed to the point where a single week can carry five frontier or near-frontier launches, but the acceleration is not a sign of confidence. It is a defensive reflex in a market where a rival's announcement can bury your own, where Chinese labs have closed most of the quality gap at a fraction of the price, and where neither the American nor the Chinese side of the race expects to earn back its spending for years.
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