Elon Musk says Tesla will sell 5 million cars by 2030 — math says otherwise

<figure> <img alt="A stylized rendering of Tesla’s Cybercab with its doors swung open appears on a green background." data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Image: The Verge" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/STKE001_STK086_Tesla_Robotaxi_3_B.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" /> <figcaption> </figcaption> </figure> <p class="wp-block-paragraph">On <a href="https://www.theverge.com/transportation/1015790/tesla-q3-2026-earnings-revenue-profit-roadster-spacex-merger">Tesla's earnings</a> call Wednesday, Elon Musk made one of his patented pie-in-the-sky predictions that typically sends his fans into paroxysms of ecstasy: 5 million vehicle deliveries by 2030. </p> <p class="wp-block-paragraph">"We were aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030," he said. "And I think we've got a good shot of achieving that goal."</p> <p class="wp-block-paragraph">You'd be forgiven for missing the statement amid the veritable firehose of Musk superlatives - the company's Terafab chip factory "will be the most valuable building in the world" with "an economic value that's going to be placed in the top 20 countries"; "Tesla will end up being a majority of all passenger miles …</p> <p><a href="https://www.theverge.com/transportation/1016055/elon-musk-tesla-5-million-cars-2030-reality-check">Read the full story at The Verge.</a></p>