Intelligence Blog
Analysis, insights, and perspectives on the semiconductor and AI industry.
Why the market traded a consent move as a spending cut
Where the memory-price surge actually ends, and it isn't the household budget
The Efficiency Nobody Measures
Why PUE is the wrong number for the AI era
The foundry table split into two races, and the movement is at second place
The AI backstop ran backwards, and the direction is the signal
Why Intel and AMD's CPU price hikes are two opposite stories
THE CULL MOVED TO THE BOARDROOM
How the semiconductor entrant cycle died, and why shortages now last longer
Water, power, and the case for leading with solutions
...redundancy is only ever redundant against the specific failure it was designed for...
Where will consumers feel the cost of the AI buildout
Who holds pricing power in the AI buildout, and hasn't used it yet
How the constraint on chip supply is descending below the fab
The Robots Are Shipping. The Work Isn't.
...production capacity, shipment counts, and deployment announcements are all getting read as the same thing, and they aren't.
The stock fell more than seven percent, erasing something like sixteen billion dollars of value.
$8 billion plan to stand up a gigawatt of computing capacity in southern India
The Other Half of the Chip War
the mineral chokepoint lands not on the part of the stack with slack, but on the part that is already the tightest.
Cerebras Competition for NVIDIA?
Follow the constraints and none of them favor the challenger...
Will AI go the way of Mobile Pricing?
...the industry flipped to unlimited for one price a month...
We are now in the Amnesia Period of Technology
When a single input doubles its share of your cost structure in ninety days, nothing about your pricing survives intact.
The two reflexes about this are that it's unprecedented and that it's a house of cards. Both are incomplete
The first bill was a component tax, a scarcity markup riding down the supply chain. The second is a capital tax, and it comes from a different place.
It is which direction the bill travels, and who is standing where it stops.
Everyone is watching the chips. The constraint left them a while ago. Here's the lens that follows it: up the stack, and down into the price.
The Liability Doesn't Vanish. It Relocates.
The financing has been engineered to disperse risk until you can't find it, and you can't find it is the measurement. When the structure is designed so that no single screen shows the whole exposure, the design itself is the warning.